Time to Upgrade under Successive Product Generations: A Survival Model with Exponential-Decay Baseline Function
时 间：2018年5月16日(周三) 上午9:00 –11:00
地 点：浙江大学紫金港校区行政楼1102会议室
主讲人：Zhengrui Jiang 教授, 美国Iowa State University
主持人：王明征 教授，火狐手机版登录入口
摘 要:
In the presence of successive product generations, most customers are repeat buyers, who may decide to purchase a future product generation before its release. As a result, after the new product generation enters the market, its sales often show a declining pattern, making traditional bell-shaped diffusion models unsuitable for characterizing the timing of product upgrades by customers. In this study, we propose a survival model with exponential-decay baseline function (or exponential-decay model) to predict customers’ time to upgrade to a new product generation. In addition, empirical analysis using upgrade and usage data for a major sports video game series shows that the exponential-decay model performs better than or as well as existing parametric models in prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we show that, by extending the basic exponential-decay model to a time-variant model, the prediction accuracy can be further improved. In particular, we find that (i) potential customers who have adopted the previous generation are more likely to upgrade; (ii) heavy users tend to upgrade earlier; (iii) specialized customers demonstrate a lower probability to upgrade. These findings can help firms better understand customers’ upgrade behaviors and develop more personalized promotions to target customers.
报告人简介：
Zhengrui Jiang is a full Professor in College of Business, Iowa State University. His research interests include business intelligence/analytics, diffusion of innovations, and economics of information goods. He has published in leading academic journals including Management Science, MIS Quarterly, Information Systems Research, IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, INRORMS Journal on Computing. He currently serves as an associate editor for Information System Research and MIS Quarterly. He previously served as guest editors for Production and Operations Management and IEEE Transactions on MIS. He also served as a program co-chair for the 2014 Midwest Association of IS Conference and the 2015 Big XII+ MIS Symposium. He will be co-chairing the 2018 Workshop on Information Technology and Systems.
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