An Empirical Study of the Behavior of Patients Who Leave the Emergency Department without Being Seen
主讲人：Asst Prof. Ehsan Bolandifar, the Chinese University of HongKong
主持人：周伟华教授，火狐手机版登录入口
时间：2018年9月7日（周五），上午10:00-11:30
地点：浙江大学紫金港校区行政楼1102会议室
摘要：
Queue abandonment has a significant impact on system performance. However, the key drivers for abandonment, particularly in observable systems, are not well understood. To better inform our understanding of abandonment behavior, we study three operational drivers of abandonment, namely, waiting time, queue length, and service rate. Using operational data from a hospital emergency department (ED), we show that all three factors affect a patient's propensity for leaving the waiting area without being seen by a physician (LWBS). Further, these factors interact with each other in a non-linear fashion. We show that patients' sensitivity to waiting time increases as they observe lower service rates. Moreover, patients are very sensitive to low service rates. We also uncover a particular behavior for patients with severe conditions; encountering an overcrowded ED, patients with severe conditions are more inclined to leave early on, while patients with less severe conditions are less likely to do so. To further explore patient behavior, we also examine the risk of patient abandonment from the ED through survival analysis. We find a dynamic Weibull distribution that is parameterized by queue length and service rate provides a good _t for observed LWBS behavior. In addition, we provide evidence that the observed hazard rate (e.g., risk of patient abandonment) is decreasing in time.
主讲人简介：
Professor Ehsan Bolandifar is an assistant professor of operations management at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. His research mainly focuses on supply chain procurement and healthcare operations. In particular, he is interested in how supply chain procurement interacts with finance and marketing.His research has been featured in journals like Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, Production and Operations Management and Academic Emergency Medicine. Professor Bolandifar has received his Ph.D. in Business Administration from Washington University in St Louis and his M.Sc. from Sharif University of Technology in Tehran.
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