Are you Building and Using the Best Model?
Models provide a powerful means for representing, understanding and improving the real world. But how do you know that you are building and using the best model? As modellers and analysts we tend to focus on model accuracy as a means for improving the chances that a model is valid. We assume that a more accurate model and set of results is better, and therefore is more likely to be believed and acted upon. But is this assumption true? Does the credibility of the results depend upon the accuracy of the model? Can a wrong model still be useful? In this talk we shall explore the relation between accuracy, validity, credibility and usefulness with specific references to simulation models. If our ultimate aim is to provide analyses that are useful this may challenge our assumptions about what is the best model.
主讲人简介：
Stewart Robinson is Dean and Professor of Management Science at Loughborough University, School of Business and Economics. Previously employed in simulation consultancy, he supported the use of simulation in companies throughout Europe and the rest of the world. He is author/co-author of six books on simulation. His research focuses on the practice of simulation model development and use. Key areas of interest are conceptual modelling, model validation, output analysis and alternative simulation methods (discrete-event, system dynamics and agent based). Professor Robinson is co-founder of the Journal of Simulation and the UK Simulation Workshop conference series. He was President of the Operational Research Society (2014-2015).
Home page: www.stewartrobinson.co.uk. Email: s.l.robinson@lboro.ac.uk
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